Libertarian Gary Johnson Polling at 15% in New Mexico

A new Public Policy Polling survey in New Mexico included a question with Gary Johnson as the Libertarian nominee.  The survey shows Johnson would poll 15% statewide, capturing a quarter of voters under 30 years old and nearly a quarter of self-identified independent voters.

If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama  (D)  ………………………….. 48%
Mitt Romney  (R)  …………………………… 35%
Gary Johnson  (L)  …………………………. 15%
Undecided  ……………………………………. 2%

If Johnson could maintain 15% in New Mexico, it would represent by far the best statewide showing for a Libertarian presidential candidate in history.

In the 2008 presidential election 830,158 voters went to the polls in New Mexico.  Assuming a similar turnout in 2012, Johnson’s 15% showing would likely result in about 125,000 popular votes from his home state alone.

The LP’s best popular vote showing in New Mexico came in 1984 when David Bergland won 4,459 votes for 0.87%.

In 1980, Ed Clark received the party’s best-ever percentage in New Mexico with 0.96% of the vote, or 4,365 votes.   The Clark campaign also holds the current record for best statewide showing in any of the 50 states for a Libertarian presidential ticket, winning 11.6% of the vote in Alaska that year.

The following is a list of the Libertarian Party’s top 5 statewide showings in Presidential elections.  The party’s candidates have only won more than 3% of the vote three times in the last forty years, and all three of those showings took place in Alaska…

#1 —  Alaska — Clark (1980) — 11.6%
#2 — Alaska — MacBride (1976)  —  5.5%
#3 — Alaska — Bergland (1984) — 3.1%
#4 — Alaska — Paul (1988)  — 2.74%
#5 — Montana — Clark (1980)  — 2.70%

3 Comments

  1. Other analyses.
    There are more undecideds (almost 1/4) for Gary than Ron, as well as more favorables.
    The vote is almost right along party lines. Percentages are statistically equal for Dem/Obama, Rep/Romney, Ind-Other/Johnson.
    Gary got 10% of the Democrats, the same as Paul currently pulls, while still being 20% undecided.

  2. Any Body but Oboma! Gary is going to needt he media to have a chance.

  3. Pingback: The Latest PPP Survey: Gary Johnson Polling at 7% in New Hampshire

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