Could Democrats Lose Major Party Status in Ohio?

Ohio governor John Kasich is cruising to an unexpectedly easy re-election, following several revelations that have rocked his Democratic challenger’s campaign.

Reports surfaced that Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald was caught engaged in “suspicious behavior” with a woman who was not his wife, while in a parked car at 4:30 am on a Saturday in 2012.  His car-related problems don’t end there, and he’s now being investigated for years of driving without a valid license.  His entire campaign staff has jumped ship, and the party is refocusing all resources on down ballot candidates.

A Public Policy Polling survey taken in November of 2013 had the challenger tied with the incumbent, suggesting a tough dogfight in an important swing state.  The Ohio GOP was so concerned they’ve aggressively, and successfully, worked to keep Libertarian nominee Charlie Earl off the ballot.  He was pulling 6% of the vote and is a former Republican state legislator.

FitzGerald was trailing Kasich by 13% before his campaign really began to unravel in August.  By early September Kasich was up by 20%, and a new poll released yesterday has the incumbent trouncing the Democrat by a 59% to 29% margin.  More than 1 in 6 Democrats are planning to support the Republican, with many others just planning to stay home.

If FitzGerald’s implosion continues, and he somehow falls below 20% on Election Day, the Democratic Party would lose “major party” status in Ohio.  Green Party nominee Anita Rios is polling at 3%.

From the Columbus Dispatch…

If Democrats can’t get their voters to fill out a ballot and FitzGerald does wind up losing by his current 30-point deficit, it would be the second-worst defeat for a major-party gubernatorial candidate in 188 years — topped only in 1994 when Gov. George V. Voinovich pulverized state Sen. Rob Burch of Dover by nearly 47 percentage points.

The one bright spot, if you can call it that, for Democrats is that FitzGerald doesn’t appear in danger of dropping below 20 percent of the vote, which would remove them from their legal status as a “major party” in Ohio.